Showing posts with label college sports. Show all posts
Showing posts with label college sports. Show all posts

Thursday, April 9, 2009

How Disappointing

I'm a week late to the discussion but the powers-that-be at the University of Oregon decided being a mid-major program is acceptable. It was fairly shocking to me since Pat Kilkenny held coaches of sports that no one cares about accountable for winning. Considering basketball is one of two sports that pays all of the bills I figured a lengthy track record of being mediocre was enough to turn the page.

The best part of the whole thing is that Oregon fans that trust what their eyes see and think a new coach was needed are supposed to feel better because a high-priced assistant was brought in. In what universe should fans be so excited about an assistant coach? This isn't football where coordinators are in charge of one side of the ball. This is basketball where there are only five players on the court at any given time. Only at Oregon would they be able to convince the fan base and local media that "an excellent assistant coach hire" is the perfect answer to the program's worst season ever. I challenge any basketball fan to name more than one assistant coach that isn't coaching his/her alma mater. The sport of college basketball is all about the head coach. It's not about the players, assistant coaches or team managers. How else do the same coaches no matter where they are coaching make teams successful?

If nothing else, the decision to keep Kent will mean next year's season tickets should be sold at a severe discount. There will likely be one road game, one "neutral" site game (Pape Jam), and 13 or so home games against some of the least talented D-I teams. The naive fan base will get excited and think the genius assistant coach has pushed all the right buttons. If this sounds like something you have heard before, it is. I feel sorry for the players that the administration has bought into the coach's theory that one trip to the tourney during their careers is the definition of success.

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Is Oregon A Mid-Major?

Among die-hard Oregon fans the topic of who should coach the basketball team is a hotly contested one. It seems half the group thinks the current regime is just the one for Oregon because even sporadic success is better than what it used to be. The other half realizes Oregon may have never been this good before but it's obvious the team needs to consistently win. I am obviously on the side that says the current coach doesn't have what it takes to make Oregon a consistent winner. Because of that one sentence many people may not continue reading but if you do you will be enlightened, I promise.

One of my good friends is a University of the Pacific alum so we went down to Stockton and watched them play a couple of weeks ago. It was my first non-Oregon college game in a long time. Needless to say, watching both teams run actual plays and appear as though they had an actual offensive game plan was not something I had grown accustomed to seeing. I then checked out the banners on the wall of the gym. The banners show that UOP has been a pretty good team over the last 10 to 15 years. A few NCAA berths, a year or two when the national media takes notice and some appearances in postseason tournaments that mean nothing. When all is said and done UOP is a pretty good mid-major program.

It was then that I realized in its current state Oregon is a mid-major. In the last ten years the team has made folks east of the Rockies take notice in two of those years. The current coach has made fans think he is a miracle worker for earning a bid to the NCAA Tournament. There are even some fans that think NIT appearances are a big deal. As I took the 'Oregon is a mid-major' theory further it really seemed to fit. Many times a mid-major team makes noise because the roster is dominated by upperclassmen that have spent quite a few years playing together. Does that sound familiar?

On the flip side, when a mid-major has a young team they usually have no chance of competing for a league title because someone else in the league is senior dominated. The end result of not competing for the league title with a young roster is something an Oregon fan is all too familiar with. However, these days many BCS teams are young so my brain tells me the reason Oregon's success is dramatically cyclical is a direct result of having one of the two worst coaches in the Pac-10. Thankfully for Ernie Kent the jury is still out on Johnny Dawkins. Though having a winning record with a team that did not have the Lopez twins shouldn't be overlooked.

In the coming days Pat Kilkenny is going to make one final decision before stepping down as athletic director. To a lot of people his decision will be about who should coach the basketball team. In my eyes his decision is deeper than that: At this time it is clear Oregon basketball is a mid-major program. Is that acceptable?

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

My Bracket Baby


My daughter was born on the second day of the 2008 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament (March Madness) and for that reason alone loves basketball. Early research shows that her affinity is for the men's version alone but only time will tell. Well, on Sunday my daughter filled out a bracket. My wife and I put the logos of the two teams for each game on the monitor and had her pick the winner. Sometimes she pointed at the logo, other times she stared at the logo and occasionally she would try to grab the keyboard. Needless to say it took a long while for us to put the bracket together.

We filmed the entire selection process and if my wife ever decided to get a PhD (I'd love to be a stay-at-home dad but she has no interest in going back to school) she should use it. There is likely a lot of rich data that some dork would love to see. Did she prefer logos on the left or right? What colors were chosen the most? Did she hate logos that had text in them? All I can figure out is that my daughter loves bears, no matter how scary they look.

My wife's family has a bracket set up on a website that shall remain nameless and I wasted no time posting my daughter's bracket on there. Since I have lost to my wife every year we have been married I had to guarantee myself not finishing last. Without further ado, here are the bright spots of my daughter's bracket:
  • East Tennessee State, Radford, CSU Northridge, Cornell, American and Mississippi State will at least win one game.
  • Mississippi State and Cornell will meet in the Elite Eight.
  • Western Kentucky and Siena will make it to the Elite Eight.
  • Kansas, Cornell, Clemson and UCLA will be in the Final Four. (I picked all four to lose in the first round.)
  • Kansas will defeat Clemson to repeat as champions.

Sunday, January 25, 2009

Being Average Is Frustrating

The UO basketball team is 0-8 in Pac-10 play right now. Perhaps when you read this they are 1-8 or 0-9, it really does not matter. Given the team's track record over the last nine years (the amount of time I have followed the team) one cannot be the least bit surprised that they would not be very good this year. Would one expect them to be one of the worst BCS conference schools? Doubtful. But hey, when the coach is able to set expectations at the beginning of the year and the local media and fans find that acceptable then an epically bad team is what you get. Just so you know, when it comes to most things in life I am not big on excuses. If you find this post infuriating, then you probably love to find excuses when things go wrong and will therefore not agree.

My assertion: Over the last nine years the Ducks are nothing more than an average Division I college basketball team. If being average is acceptable then I think the team and its staff is constructed in just the right way. If one aspires to be better than average then, well, it's not brain surgery.

Let's start with indisputable facts. Most of the historical information was found at Pac-10.org.
  • According to Ken Pomeroy, who is a math guy that tries to approximate the RPI, the Ducks are 139 out 344 (as of 11:20am on an 31, 2009). That really is not that good. There are all of 5 teams from BCS Conferences rated lower.
  • Over the last nine years the team has had an average (mean) finish of 5.5 in the Pac-10 Conference. So that nothing gets past anyone, the Pac-10 only has ten teams. From 2000-01 to 2008-09 the Ducks standing in the Pac-10 has been (6, 1, 5, 4, 8, 7, 3, 6, 10).
  • Since the Pac-10 Tournament returned the Ducks have been 10-4, with two titles. They missed the tournament entirely one year but that will never happen again since all teams are invited now.
  • The Ducks have been to the NCAA tournament four out of nine years, advancing to the Elite Eight twice and losing the first game twice.
  • The Ducks have been to the NIT a couple of times. For me, the NIT means absolutely nothing. All that is needed is a .500 record, which this day and age (30+ games and a ton of nonconference cupcakes) is not a big deal.

Okay now that the basic facts have been laid out there, some analysis is needed.

1. The last nine years of UO basketball have proven one thing: The Ducks are consistently inconsistent. The team has finished in the bottom half of the conference five out of nine times. The Pac-10 is nowhere near the strongest conference. My sources tell me the Ducks have had more talent during this run than at any other time in the program's history. My eyes tell me talented players have worn the jersey but really spotty team play has characterized the on-court performance.

2. I have not really seen a legitimate offense too often. Watching exceptionally fast-paced play is a lot of fun but it seems only a select few can actually thrive in that system. This year's offense in particular has been an abomination. My junior high team ran some set plays that required a bit more creativity than high post screens at the three-point line and long range three-pointers. I'm far from an expert but when Mike Montgomery puts Yao Ming's cousin in the game just to shove it in the Ducks' faces that he is one helluva coach that would be a good time to get the ball to the only good post player I have ever seen wear the green and gold.

3. I was unaware that freshmen players have to suck for the first few years. If I have to hear or read about a the Ducks having a young team one more time I will cry. Just last year I had to hear that the experienced Ducks were at a disadvantage because all of the good players were freshmen. This year, it is the exact opposite story. It simply makes no sense. Michael Dunigan is routinely talked about in the paper as very young and in need of a lot of seasoning. The best way to get that done is to play the guy, though it seems foul trouble does get in his way. I'm not sure he was in foul trouble at Cal but I think he was pulled out of the game for displaying a phenomenal post move, the drop-step daddy dunk. Perhaps he wasn't taken out immediately after but that play alone should have warranted a few more touches.

4. The coaches seem to be in complete denial. After every loss the team is "really close to getting over the hump" and "didn't quite execute the game plan." Am I the only one that actually watches the game? When multiple teams shoot their season-high field goal percentage it probably is not a reflection of really lucky shooting. When a team loses by 15+ points that is not a positive thing. It does not matter if things looked good for 18 minutes, the game is 40 minutes in duration. By the same token, a "close loss," anything less than ten I suppose, may not be that close. Last week's Cal game being a perfect example. At no point were the Ducks out of the game but at no point did it seem they had a chance to win. It is a hard feeling to describe but if you have felt it you know what I am talking about.

5. There also seems to be a lot of weird finger pointing. I remember when Aaron Brooks was a struggling junior I heard it was Luke Ridnour's fault because he left early and did not tutor Brooks. Really? Then last year the team did not meet expectations and it was because Brooks decided to enter the NBA draft after playing four years. How selfish could one be? The talk about having a really young team and making that an excuse is pathetic. When a team has a ton of seniors it is reasonable to expect that the team the following year will be young. As far as I can tell that is the only thing that can be assumed. Assuming that a team has to be awful because it is young seems like a bit of a stretch for me. Those are general themes, if you read a game report you can find numerous excuses for why something did not happen. Personally, I find great joy in trying to guess what those might be. If you want to try it, my only advice if you want to be correct is to try and be outlandish in your guesses.

6. The UO needs to offer a night class on how to properly arrange a team schedule. For the last eight years the preseason schedule has been chocked full of teams that are rated less than 250 in Ken Pomeroy's ratings. As much as I would love to see teams of lesser quality than those invited to the Les Schwab Invitational, a college gymnasium is not where I want to see them. Then what do you know, this year the schedule could be classified as ambitious and the team is full of freshmen (see above). Again, another point of bewilderment for me. Last year's team had all seniors and played very weak teams, this year's team has all freshman and plays decent teams. It should be fun watching a paper tiger in the early part of the season next year as the experienced bunch plays cupcakes. If history is any indicator of things to come then the opening of Matt Court should be hosting such heavyweights as: North Florida, Furman, Dartmouth, Sac State, Army, and Longwood. Should be easy to pay off the state bonds with those Final Four favorites. I don't know who is to blame for the scheduling but one would think the coaches and administrators are the culprits.

7. I was not aware that if a team recruits good guys that graduate then it means they cannot be good for the duration of their career. It is not a bad thing that the Ducks have good guys but I doubt they are the only team with good guys. Very few times do I hear about college teams rampant with jerks on the roster. For the most part it seems the vast majority of college players are guys you wouldn't mind your kids being friends with. There also is not a problem with players graduating but I don't think that is an excuse for bad on-court performances. Unless things have changed drastically since I graduated, the UO would never be confused for an Ivy League school. When all is said and done I do not think responsible men and consistent winning are mutually exclusive.

8. This does not necessarily reflect poorly on the basketball program but the local newspaper is an enabler. I get that there is only one show in town and if that show does not want to talk then one is screwed. I don't think that means the Register-Guard has to be an extension of the UO SID. After every failed weekend, you can count on a heartwarming off-the-court tale just like you can count on clouds in the sky. You can go to the paper's basketball blog and easily confuse it for goducks.com. There is a weekly update on players from the past and how well they are doing on and off the court. I suppose that is good but let's have a little bit of accountability. My favorite was when LeKendric Longmire (who did redshirt) was asked if he thinks all freshmen should be required to redshirt. This was clearly a question to placate the "there should not be any expectations placed on freshmen" crowd. Given the success of countless freshmen every single season, that is one of the worst questions ever asked.

I suppose this is as good a place to stop as any. If after reading this you think my expectations are that the Ducks should win Pac-10 Championships year after year and routinely make the Sweet Sixteen, then you are not a very good reader. I simply believe that the Ducks have the potential and should be a better-than-average program. Routinely finishing in the top half a respectable conference and therefore going to the NCAAs more times than not does not seem too ridiculous. I am okay with baby steps as long as they are forward. When Washington State is better equipped at rebuilding after having tremendous success it is time something happen. Oh wait, you're to tell me they are not having an epically bad year this year? And playing down to the level, or even comparing oneself to Oregon State, is a place I never thought the Ducks would be. If this is acceptable to you then you will leave a nasty comment on here and I am fine with that. I will leave you with one question to consider before commenting: Is there such a thing as a good coach or program that is by definition average?

Friday, January 23, 2009

A Distant Memory

I suspect I may be writing a scathing blog about a certain UO team so I will try to endear myself to Duck fans by railing on Notre Dame football. This post is slightly dated but is something I have to do.

I grew up a huge Notre Dame fan. When I was a kid my family did not have cable (my parents waited until I left for college) so I only watched the games that were on the national networks. Add to that the fact that my dad is a Catholic from Iowa and there was only one team to watch. We would spend every fall Saturday watching Notre Dame beat up on people. We visited the campus, I purchased and still have a #3 jersey and I subscribed to Blue & Gold Illustrated. Name any player from the 90s and I remember them.

It will be a very long time before I forget watching Notre Dame defeat Florida State, then lose shortly thereafter to Boston College. I remember it like it was yesterday. Over the course of a week our basement in Virginia saw a wide range of emotions from a 10-year-old. I also remember Lou Holtz running out onto the field in a big game (can't remember the opponent) and pulling a player off of the field for being an idiot. I read books about great Notre Dame coaches, memorized lines in Rudy and even caught NBC's one or two obligated broadcasts of Notre Dame basketball. Who can forget the great LaPhonso Ellis?

I say all of this because the Notre Dame I grew to love no longer exists. And it has nothing to do with the won-loss record. There is one (well, he's nearly the size of three) man that has screwed Notre Dame up to a point where I hope the team fails. Charlie Weis is a joke. He has managed to ruin something that was once great. As this last season unfolded I hoped Notre Dame would lose every game. I tried not to watch their games because it was embarrassing. If only I had decided not to watch their bowl game. After seeing that abomination I have no choice but to renounce my membership in the Notre Dame fan club. Let's review:

1. This day in age it is not very nice to make fun of anyone for any reason but Charlie Weis is too easy. He is an arrogant snob who curses the individual that decided donuts should have holes in them. The guy is so pathetic that he sued the doctors that botched his shrink-the-stomach surgery. Not sure what the medical name of it is. I mean come on, take Obama's advice and be responsible for your own actions coach. Your lack of care for yourself (this includes the snot running down your upper lip into your mouth on cold days) reflects poorly on the team.

2. At first, you may think the first point is a low blow but it leads to a greater point, Charlie Weis' laziness translates into the way he coaches. His inability to pull his face out of a pasta dish has left his players far too cocky for a .500 team. And even worse, he is so lazy that he has pulled an Ernie Kent and dumbed down the Notre Dame schedule. As I grew up I always knew Notre Dame was going to play quite a few top teams. Now, Weis has decided the best way to save a job is to play the absolute worst BCS conference teams, every military school and USC. How can a true Notre Dame fan stand behind such a schedule?

3. Jimmy Clausen is a chump. During the Lou Holtz days a guy like Clausen would not even be allowed to step on campus, let alone quarterback the team. No one has had so much hype and been such a pansy. Watching him think he was the greatest player ever at the Hawaii Bowl made me puke. After every touchdown he would taunt the Hawaii sidelines and fans. Hawaii's defense was so bad it would be the same as me taunting third graders at a spelling bee. I look forward to the day that Clausen gets drilled by a military school linebacker and has to be carted off the field.

4. I have been over the coach being a lazy (insert any four-letter word you prefer) and having that trickle down through the program. You add to that the fact that the team loses more than it ever has and you have a sports equivalent to California's budget crisis. I'm all for losing control of a team if you win games but games must be won.

5. People go back and forth on loving and hating Notre Dame. It is this way because they used to be dominant. Now, they are anything but. There is no way anyone under 20 cares one way or the other about Notre Dame. They are now terrible. A lot of people point to losing Syracuse this last year as a really bad moment because the Orange had such a pitiful record. What seems to be forgotten is that Syracuse had already fired its coach before the game started. In the future this should be written into every coach's contract: If you lose at home against a team with less than three wins that has already fired its coach you must be terminated without compensation.


It would be too easy to point out what is wrong with Notre Dame without providing some solutions. The program has fallen apart and I have a very simple two-step solution. By following this advice Notre Dame may be able to save face.

1. Hire a head coach. Weis seemed to do a fine job calling plays from the press box during the bowl game. He was able to sit down, drink lots of soda, venture over to the press box buffet, drink lots of soda, partake in some chips and dip and eat some more buffet. As long as the intern remembers to laminate the play sheet to avoid grease marks Weis would be perfect for the OC job at Notre Dame.

2. Join the WAC. The WAC would still let their games be broadcast on NBC so that would not be a problem. By joining the WAC, Notre Dame would be able to improve its strength of schedule and slowly but surely win back respect. It would not be an overnight turnaround but it would be a step in the right direction.

If it is decided that this process is too involved, the school could easily just fire Weis all together and bring in a real coach with enough dignity to restore the luster to the gold helmet. It is up to those that actually have a vested interest in Notre Dame to make that happen. My days as one that cares about Notre Dame are over. It is sad to admit but I have to do it. I would be a terrible father if I rooted for a coach and a team that was so lame.

Thursday, January 22, 2009

Ready To Explode

Let this post serve as a warning. There is a Pac-10 basketball team that is one loss away from making me lose my mind. For the life of this blog I have been holding my tongue but things have gotten so pathetic I may have to let loose. Here is one clue as to which team I am referring to: They are two games behind Oregon State in the conference standings. That my friends, is the definition of pathetic. The same Oregon State team that did not win a single Pac-10 game last year and whose coach took a vacation for part of this week. Perhaps the unnamed school might want a similar schedule next week for its coach.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

2008 Upset Special Week #13

Need to get this one in early since all of the JV college teams play in the middle of the week (Oregon State included!). Call me a hater but I cannot stand talk about non-BCS teams being Top 15 teams. Having to play no more than one good team a season does not allow one to claim they are worthy of inclusion with the big boys. Boise State is a cute story because they beat Oklahoma a couple of years ago, I get that. But you're to tell me a week after beating Oklahoma they would have been able to beat Texas, then Baylor, then Colorado, then Texas Tech, then Oklahoma State, then Oklahoma? Not a chance. (Notice I sprinkled in a couple of average BCS teams in there just for fun.) And I don't want to hear any talk about it not being fair to non-BCS teams. Is it fair that I couldn't get into an Ivy League school because my SAT, GPA and a variety of other things were not strong enough? I contend that it is.

I ramble on about all of this because tonight one of the spectacular non-BCS teams plays tonight. Ball State is at Central Michigan (+7). Central Michigan has a quarterback that is supposed to be the poor man's Tim Tebow. Whether or not that is true I have serious doubts. One thing I do not doubt is that if Ball State played Washington State the Cougars would not even be the third worst team they played. Go here to check out the gauntlet of football powers Ball State has had to encounter on their way to football glory. If I'm not mistaken only one of those teams has a winning record (Navy is 6-4). So there you have it. I have a strong dislike for non-BCS teams crashing the BCS just as you would have a strong dislike if I decided I should be a practicing medical doctor because it just seems fair.


Last Week: So maybe me being an upset special picker is just as foolish as non-BCS teams playing in big boy bowls.

Season-to-Date: 2-9. Still better than the Bengals and maybe the Oregon men's basketball team?

Saturday, November 15, 2008

2008 Upset Special Week #12

Not a lot of barn burners this week to choose from. After perusing the lines I was a bit surprised to see Oregon a touchdown favorite but there is no way I would pick that game. Nearly by default the game that will result in me having a winning streak is in the Big XII. Kansas State (+6) is hosting Nebraska. I do not even know the records of these teams I just know that I can't stand Nebraska and Kansas State is so bad their coach was fired already, though he is still coaching. With all of that it is a shock that College GameDay is not in Manhattan this week.


Last Week: Pure domination. As has been the case all year my pick pulled off the upset. The Hawkeyes saved the Big Ten a lot of embarrassment.

Season-to-Date: 2-8. When you're good you're good. What can I say?

Saturday, November 8, 2008

2008 Upset Special Week #11

Here we go again. This week's pick came down to two games. One in the Pac-10 (hint: Oregon's premier community college is heading to LA) and one in the Big Ten. Since I am such a charitable fellow I decided to go with the game from the Big Ten. I am making this pick because the Big Ten needs this upset to happen. It is an incredibly weak conference that is painfully boring to watch. In the event that the Big Ten has another undefeated team I am confident they would be able to weasel their way into the National Championship. My predictions have been admittedly terrible but I can guarantee a Big Ten team would get throttled in that game no matter who the opponent is. In essence, I am making this pick because I have the Big Ten's best interests in mind. The Iowa Hawkeyes (+7.5) will take down the Penn State Nittany Lions. This is the last chance anyone has of beating Penn State so why not go with the beloved Hawkeyes. Their coach may be the most overpaid and their roster may have the most convicts but you have to love Iowa.


Last Week: Only a certain Pac-10 team's special teams were worse than my pick.

Season-to-Date: 1-8, surprisingly right on par with the resurgent Bengals.

Friday, November 7, 2008

Cal Game Rehash

This recap of the Cal game is not late because the Ducks lost. It is late because I just dried off and now feel confident I can use the keyboard without ruining it. I did not see what the rain looked like on TV but trust that it was far worse than you could have imagined. As one who just spent eight years in Eugene I can tell you it was the worst rain I have subjected myself to ever. I could go to every Cal football game for the next 50 years, combine the amount of rain that falls on me and not get rained on as much as I did Saturday. I was the only one in our group that had rain gear and I was completely soaked by halftime. Luckily what my friends and family lacked in rain gear they made up for with beer and liquor. If not for that stuff I would have been watching the game alone. We were there for the entire game if anyone doubted our commitment. Some thoughts on the game as I remember them a week later:

The Lasik did no good. My brother-in-law could see better than he has in years but BearVision still stunk. From the other side of the stadium it was impossible to distinguish what sport was being played let alone who was playing. So you know, I am not a facilities snob. You will not find me bragging about Oregon's this and Oregon's that. It's all about winning games in my book so that will tell you just how pathetic BearVision is.

As for the play on the field. In my prediction I predicted that the special teams would be the difference since I did not break them down. I will only say that that was a major understatement. Drops, blocks and misses were present throughout the game. Never have I seen an early 4th quarter missed field goal change the momentum of the game. Up until that point the vibe in the stadium was all Oregon's and everyone knew it.

I give Cal fans credit. After the game I did not see any of them treating Ducks fans like second class citizens. I embarrassingly assured my wife's uncle that when he comes to Autzen (he calls it Autism) next year Ducks fans will not return the favor. They may have been extra nice to us because they too were miserable but whatever the case I appreciated the apathy of Cal fans at that point.

In the days that followed friends told me they were bummed for me and wanted to know what I thought about Oregon losing its national ranking. Maybe I love being a contrarian (okay, I really, really love being a contrarian) but does being ranked 24th mean anything? My response has been, "If you're not in the Top 5 or 10 it really does not matter." Teams ranked eleven through 119 generally go to crappy bowl games or none at all.

Lastly, this does not have much to do with the Cal game but Bellotti need not be fired. I actually like Canzano, we share opinions on a certain basketball coach, but I think his latest article is a stretch. I will have more on my thoughts relating to expectations for Oregon Football after the Stanford game, win or lose. And the result of the game will have nothing to do with my thoughts.

Friday, October 31, 2008

Oregon vs. Cal

I am headed over with a group of 13 to Berkeley tomorrow. It is a mixture of Ducks and Bears but we have one thing in common, we are family. Any time you can get the family out for a football game it is awesome. We are leaving early in the morning so we can tailgate with breakfast burritos, pastries and beverages of one's choosing. It all has me wondering if I am even going to be able to sleep tonight. The threat of rain (90% chance) does not bother me at all. Though sunshine would be nice, the opportunity to see the Ducks trumps that. There is not a single Duck fan that follows this blog that wants me to make a prediction so I won't. My upset specials have been anything but special. I will predict a couple of things though.

First, my brother-in-law (a Duck grad) has no idea how happy he will be that he got Lasik surgery done today. Though he may not be fully recovered, without the surgery he would have had zero chance of seeing the Cal video board. Now with those wicked shades the doctor provided him there is hope that he will be able to see a Duck touchdown on the screen.

My other prediction is that the game will be close. I do not see the Ducks winning a blowout and Tedford's ultra-conservative playcalling when in the lead means this one will be a nailbiter. I'll provide a layman's breakdown of the key positions.

The Ducks appear to have the advantage on the lines since Cal's O-line is banged up. The quarterback position isn't necessarily a strength for either side but if forced to I would give the slight edge to Oregon since for whatever reason Riley has not been the man for the entire season.

Running backs end up being a draw for me and that is because of the linebacker play. As long as I have been a Duck fan the linebackers have never been better than servicable. This year's bunch doesn't strike fear into anyone and when healthy (not sure how healthy he is at this moment) Jahvid Best is the type of runner that wreaks havoc on unathletic linebackers. On the other side the Ducks running backs are solid and so are the Cal linebackers. That is likely where the game will be won or lost.

I think both secondaries are overrated and more so if the weather is wet. If I'm Masoli I throw at whoever Syd'Quan Thompson is covering. Though he appears to be a Strawberry Canyon favorite I have not seen anything from him that suggests he can actually cover a receiver. His name gets called a lot because he has a knack for tackling the receiver that just caught the ball in front of him. Hopefully the Ducks defensive line is able to make a mess of the pocket so that Riley doesn't have time to find the open receivers.

I admit to knowing very little about the special teams play for either team. Contrary to popular belief I actually have a life. So you have to figure the kickers, along with the weather, is what will decide the game since I have not broken them down. As for the prediction: I'm going 30-27.

2008 Upset Special Week #10

My success with this weekly post has been phenomenal. It's a minor miracle that a major news network or Vegas casino hasn't hired me. This week I'm heading to the SEC. I see that Auburn is a 6.5 point underdog at Ole Miss. Auburn has had a terribly disappointing season. My hunch is that their defense will hold Ole Miss to less than 10 and score at least 10 on their own. In essence I am picking the Auburn defense to defeat Ole Miss.


Last Week: Do you even have to ask?

Season to Date: 1-7. When all is said and done the record will show that the Pac-10 refs screwing UW in week two did more than cost Ty Willingham his job.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Cal Game Prelude

This should have been posted a while ago but now is as good a time as any. I went to the Cal vs. ASU game a few weeks ago. First things first, it sure brought back terrible memories. The last and only time I had been there before was the site of "The Drop." If my memory serves me right, a Duck who shall remain nameless dropped a crucial pass right in front of the seats I was sitting in for this game. What a horrific moment to relive.

Now some random observations from the game:
  • The atmosphere at Cal games is very weak. They seem to think they are a big time bunch of fans but they have a dudeleader yelling into a megaphone/pa system telling them what to do. For me a lot of Duck fans are major homers but that sure beats having a trust fund, frat kid reminding me to get "moderately louder so that the opponent has difficulty converting on third down and long, which is defined by being seven yards or greater." So maybe those weren't his exact words but they were similar.
  • It's no wonder the fans need to be clued in on what's going on. If the folks sitting around me are any indication of the fan base then I would guess they prefer to attend art shows, not football games. The man seated right in front of me was a nice guy. He seemed like the type of guy that has two or three advanced degrees and works in a bookstore. Here are some of his gems:
"Hard yards, but well earned." (After a decent five or six-yard run.)
"One more opportunity to shine." (After a big play was called back on a holding penalty.)
"That was a work of beauty." (After a touchdown pass.)
"No creativity on that run." (After an unforgettable kickoff return.)
"Not a very distinguished series." (After a patented second half drive by a Tedford team that goes three and out, giving the impression that he has no desire to score and wants the opponent to stay in the game.)
"I hope you have a bulletproof car." (Yelled at referee after a questionable call. This one came out of nowhere but no one else seemed to think it was a weird thing to yell when the stadium was completely silent. And it got me thinking: What if a fan from say the Southeast or Midwest had said the same thing would the tolerant liberals of Berkeley had shrugged it off as no big deal? Oh, I am sure they would have. What am I thinking?)
  • I did not go to Cal but was offended by what they call a video screen. As a California resident who pays taxes that support the school I can't believe that is all the athletic department can muster. From the other side of the field it looks like nothing more than a 47" tube television seen at any number of grandparents' homes across America. Simply pathetic.
  • If this does not describe Cal then nothing does. Between the first and second quarter the UC Chief of Police was honored for doing such a wonderful job handling the tree protesters. Are you kidding? This is government at its finest. The man does nothing for over a year and gets recognized publicly for it. And to top it all off the crowd actually stands and claps for him. My conscience does not allow me to respect a place that thinks law enforcement's job is to do absolutely nothing and let hippies run anything but a commune.
  • I did not spend all of my time trying to rip on Cal. Through squinting eyes I did notice that they did a great job on one video shown on the big screen. As part of Homecoming they had a recent graduate spend a couple of minutes describing the fun she had as a Cal student. The genius part of the thing was that this recent graduate was very good looking. For a brief moment in time I wondered what it would have been like to go to Cal and I was not the only one. One gentleman I went to the game with who is 47-years-old seriously considered pursuing baccalaureate studies after the video ended.
  • Finally, I did learn something worthwhile that day. I now know how to determine if a college football rivalry is a real rivalry. Notre Dame is involved in the equation. If you hate Notre Dame more than the team in question then a rivalry does not exist. A true rivalry is like Cal vs. Stanford. When the score was announced that Notre Dame had beaten Stanford there was a unanimous cheer celebrating the Stanford lost. In comparison, I'm pretty sure the typical Duck fan is still tickled pink about Oregon State's Fiesta Bowl win way back when. To prove my point further let's pretend we are at Autzen. If Oregon State is beating Western Washington there is polite applause and a few cheers. If Notre Dame is losing in the first quarter by one point to Virginia it sounds like Oregon just scored a touchdown, minus the horn. So when someone tries to tell you that a rivalry is fierce just add Notre Dame to the equation to see if it really is. And if anyone can explain to me the vitriol Ducks fans have for a team that they have not played or had any reason to care about in the last 30 years please tell me.

Friday, October 24, 2008

2008 Upset Special Week #9

I promise I have not seen the results. Just got home from a long day. My pick this week is SJSU over Boise State. I heard on the radio that the spread was 7 so I should be good. This pick is simple. Boise State's schedule is as offensive as the preseason Oregon men's basketball schedule the last few years. Not this year though. Now that we have all freshmen we play harder teams, go figure. Rest assured I will delve into that phenomenon soon. Back to Boise State, I can't stand their schedule. You hear about people ripping on the SEC preseason schedule for being lame. Well, Boise State plays that schedule for an entire season. For all of the faithful Boise State fans out there I do know they beat Oregon this year. There is nothing I can say about that. Let's hope in turns out being a good Oregon team. Only time will tell. Now onto ESPN.com to see if I am already wrong.


Last Week: Nothing is working for me.

Season-to-Date: 1-6, still doing better than the Bengals.

Friday, October 17, 2008

2008 Upset Special Week #8

My apologies for missing last week. I am sure whatever team I was going to pick was heartbroken that I did not take the time to do it. I have a good excuse for missing though. I was busy planning a Grand Opening for the family's new business I am working for. Here is the website if you are interested.

Due to my tailbone (read the post below) I am making this quick. Iowa State is the pick. I do not even remember who they are playing. After scouring the lines earlier in the week that is the one that stood out to me. I could take the easy way out and pick Washington State over USC but have decided I want that second correct pick to be something special.


Two Weeks Ago: Loss, real shocker there.

Season To Date: 1-5. Just think, if I were a Bengals fan I would be thrilled to see that in the AFC standings!

Saturday, October 4, 2008

2008 Upset Special Week #6

Since I am heading out the door to Berkeley for some California vs. ASU football I have to make this quick. My strategy this week was to pick the first game I came to on the list with a spread near seven. Lucky for me it was the first one. NC State (+8) will beat Boston College at home. There is no doubt in my mind. If you are a Wolfpack fan, I am sorry for doing this to you.


Last Week: Don't even ask.

Season-to-Date: 1-4

Saturday, September 27, 2008

2008 Upset Special Week #5

After scouring the sports page this morning I am left to assume the Sacramento Bee made a mistake. Duke is favored by seven points against Virginia. I realize Virginia stinks but Duke has defined the word for my entire lifetime. Just recently Duke was sued by Louisville for breach of contract by backing out of some games. As part of its defense Duke said it was the worst team so Louisville should have no problem replacing them on the schedule with a team of similar stature. That is the Cliff's Note version, find more here. Duke ended up winning the case so I am left to go with the courts on this one. Thomas Jefferson's school will pull this one out.


Last Week: Don't ask. It was better than the week before though.

Season-to-Date: A gross 1-3.

Monday, September 22, 2008

Starting Over

Much like those on Wall Street I am in need of a do-over. My strategy in picking an upset special every week is a complete and utter failure. Choosing a team whose coach I believe to be on the hotseat is not working out, for obvious reasons I know. The only thing worse than my last upset special may have been Oregon's defense but that is certainly up for debate. I do know my upset special pick was better than the special teams play of the Ducks though. A new strategy in picking an upset special has not been defined. I have spent the last couple of days trying to get over just how bad my last two picks have been. The craziest thing is that I almost felt like a winner this week since my pick only lost by 20-something as opposed to 59. Baby steps I suppose. At this rate my pick on October 4th might be in line for an actual win. I will be at the Coliseum watching one team that will be a severe underdog hoping they pull off a miracle. For that reason alone I am not picking the Ducks against USC because that would all but ensure a long drive home for me. This week's pick will be the beginning of a long road back to .500 for me. Probably just as long of a road for the Pac-10 (minus USC) to gain any respect from anyone.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

2008 Upset Special Week #4

It is probably a good idea to venture away from the Pac-10 since the last couple of weeks have been tough to take. I have had this pick in my sights for a whole week now. I admit to not being too confident in this pick but at some point the favored team's trash talk about its opponents is going to come back to bite them. Pardon the pun since they are known for waving their arms in a fashion that is supposed to resemble a chomp. I think it looks more like a variation on every two year olds favorite game, pattie cake, but that's just me.

This week's pick is the host Tennessee (+7.5) over Florida. Tennessee did lose to UCLA and, well, that is pathetic but I sense the players want to save their coach's job. This theory nearly worked for my Washington pick until the Pac-10 got in the way and I suspect the SEC officials will be dotting their I's and crossing their T's so let's take a chance on this one.


Last Week: The few people that do read this blog made fun of my pick and they have every right to. A weaker man would quit doing these picks after UCLA's performance but I am going to stick it out. I do stand by my assertion even more though. The Bruins will be back in the thick of playing for second place in the Pac-10 before too long so take advantage now.

Season to Date: 1-2

Saturday, September 13, 2008

2008 Upset Special Week #3

Things are really busy around our place. Trying to get things in order for a little get together to watch the Ducks in HD. As a result, the upset special breakdown is very simple. UCLA over BYU. Earlier in the week UCLA was about a 9-point underdog and I feel good about this one. Lost in all of the referee hubbub is that BYU stinks. UCLA on the other hand, Pac-10 teams better beat this year and next because they are going to be scary good very soon. Or so I predict.