2008 Upset Special Week #13

Need to get this one in early since all of the JV college teams play in the middle of the week (Oregon State included!). Call me a hater but I cannot stand talk about non-BCS teams being Top 15 teams. Having to play no more than one good team a season does not allow one to claim they are worthy of inclusion with the big boys. Boise State is a cute story because they beat Oklahoma a couple of years ago, I get that. But you're to tell me a week after beating Oklahoma they would have been able to beat Texas, then Baylor, then Colorado, then Texas Tech, then Oklahoma State, then Oklahoma? Not a chance. (Notice I sprinkled in a couple of average BCS teams in there just for fun.) And I don't want to hear any talk about it not being fair to non-BCS teams. Is it fair that I couldn't get into an Ivy League school because my SAT, GPA and a variety of other things were not strong enough? I contend that it is.

I ramble on about all of this because tonight one of the spectacular non-BCS teams plays tonight. Ball State is at Central Michigan (+7). Central Michigan has a quarterback that is supposed to be the poor man's Tim Tebow. Whether or not that is true I have serious doubts. One thing I do not doubt is that if Ball State played Washington State the Cougars would not even be the third worst team they played. Go here to check out the gauntlet of football powers Ball State has had to encounter on their way to football glory. If I'm not mistaken only one of those teams has a winning record (Navy is 6-4). So there you have it. I have a strong dislike for non-BCS teams crashing the BCS just as you would have a strong dislike if I decided I should be a practicing medical doctor because it just seems fair.


Last Week: So maybe me being an upset special picker is just as foolish as non-BCS teams playing in big boy bowls.

Season-to-Date: 2-9. Still better than the Bengals and maybe the Oregon men's basketball team?

2008 Upset Special Week #12

Not a lot of barn burners this week to choose from. After perusing the lines I was a bit surprised to see Oregon a touchdown favorite but there is no way I would pick that game. Nearly by default the game that will result in me having a winning streak is in the Big XII. Kansas State (+6) is hosting Nebraska. I do not even know the records of these teams I just know that I can't stand Nebraska and Kansas State is so bad their coach was fired already, though he is still coaching. With all of that it is a shock that College GameDay is not in Manhattan this week.


Last Week: Pure domination. As has been the case all year my pick pulled off the upset. The Hawkeyes saved the Big Ten a lot of embarrassment.

Season-to-Date: 2-8. When you're good you're good. What can I say?

2008 Upset Special Week #11

Here we go again. This week's pick came down to two games. One in the Pac-10 (hint: Oregon's premier community college is heading to LA) and one in the Big Ten. Since I am such a charitable fellow I decided to go with the game from the Big Ten. I am making this pick because the Big Ten needs this upset to happen. It is an incredibly weak conference that is painfully boring to watch. In the event that the Big Ten has another undefeated team I am confident they would be able to weasel their way into the National Championship. My predictions have been admittedly terrible but I can guarantee a Big Ten team would get throttled in that game no matter who the opponent is. In essence, I am making this pick because I have the Big Ten's best interests in mind. The Iowa Hawkeyes (+7.5) will take down the Penn State Nittany Lions. This is the last chance anyone has of beating Penn State so why not go with the beloved Hawkeyes. Their coach may be the most overpaid and their roster may have the most convicts but you have to love Iowa.


Last Week: Only a certain Pac-10 team's special teams were worse than my pick.

Season-to-Date: 1-8, surprisingly right on par with the resurgent Bengals.

2008 Upset Special Week #10

My success with this weekly post has been phenomenal. It's a minor miracle that a major news network or Vegas casino hasn't hired me. This week I'm heading to the SEC. I see that Auburn is a 6.5 point underdog at Ole Miss. Auburn has had a terribly disappointing season. My hunch is that their defense will hold Ole Miss to less than 10 and score at least 10 on their own. In essence I am picking the Auburn defense to defeat Ole Miss.


Last Week: Do you even have to ask?

Season to Date: 1-7. When all is said and done the record will show that the Pac-10 refs screwing UW in week two did more than cost Ty Willingham his job.

2008 Upset Special Week #9

I promise I have not seen the results. Just got home from a long day. My pick this week is SJSU over Boise State. I heard on the radio that the spread was 7 so I should be good. This pick is simple. Boise State's schedule is as offensive as the preseason Oregon men's basketball schedule the last few years. Not this year though. Now that we have all freshmen we play harder teams, go figure. Rest assured I will delve into that phenomenon soon. Back to Boise State, I can't stand their schedule. You hear about people ripping on the SEC preseason schedule for being lame. Well, Boise State plays that schedule for an entire season. For all of the faithful Boise State fans out there I do know they beat Oregon this year. There is nothing I can say about that. Let's hope in turns out being a good Oregon team. Only time will tell. Now onto ESPN.com to see if I am already wrong.


Last Week: Nothing is working for me.

Season-to-Date: 1-6, still doing better than the Bengals.

2008 Upset Special Week #8

My apologies for missing last week. I am sure whatever team I was going to pick was heartbroken that I did not take the time to do it. I have a good excuse for missing though. I was busy planning a Grand Opening for the family's new business I am working for. Here is the website if you are interested.

Due to my tailbone (read the post below) I am making this quick. Iowa State is the pick. I do not even remember who they are playing. After scouring the lines earlier in the week that is the one that stood out to me. I could take the easy way out and pick Washington State over USC but have decided I want that second correct pick to be something special.


Two Weeks Ago: Loss, real shocker there.

Season To Date: 1-5. Just think, if I were a Bengals fan I would be thrilled to see that in the AFC standings!

2008 Upset Special Week #6

Since I am heading out the door to Berkeley for some California vs. ASU football I have to make this quick. My strategy this week was to pick the first game I came to on the list with a spread near seven. Lucky for me it was the first one. NC State (+8) will beat Boston College at home. There is no doubt in my mind. If you are a Wolfpack fan, I am sorry for doing this to you.


Last Week: Don't even ask.

Season-to-Date: 1-4

2008 Upset Special Week #5

After scouring the sports page this morning I am left to assume the Sacramento Bee made a mistake. Duke is favored by seven points against Virginia. I realize Virginia stinks but Duke has defined the word for my entire lifetime. Just recently Duke was sued by Louisville for breach of contract by backing out of some games. As part of its defense Duke said it was the worst team so Louisville should have no problem replacing them on the schedule with a team of similar stature. That is the Cliff's Note version, find more here. Duke ended up winning the case so I am left to go with the courts on this one. Thomas Jefferson's school will pull this one out.


Last Week: Don't ask. It was better than the week before though.

Season-to-Date: A gross 1-3.

Starting Over

Much like those on Wall Street I am in need of a do-over. My strategy in picking an upset special every week is a complete and utter failure. Choosing a team whose coach I believe to be on the hotseat is not working out, for obvious reasons I know. The only thing worse than my last upset special may have been Oregon's defense but that is certainly up for debate. I do know my upset special pick was better than the special teams play of the Ducks though. A new strategy in picking an upset special has not been defined. I have spent the last couple of days trying to get over just how bad my last two picks have been. The craziest thing is that I almost felt like a winner this week since my pick only lost by 20-something as opposed to 59. Baby steps I suppose. At this rate my pick on October 4th might be in line for an actual win. I will be at the Coliseum watching one team that will be a severe underdog hoping they pull off a miracle. For that reason alone I am not picking the Ducks against USC because that would all but ensure a long drive home for me. This week's pick will be the beginning of a long road back to .500 for me. Probably just as long of a road for the Pac-10 (minus USC) to gain any respect from anyone.

2008 Upset Special Week #4

It is probably a good idea to venture away from the Pac-10 since the last couple of weeks have been tough to take. I have had this pick in my sights for a whole week now. I admit to not being too confident in this pick but at some point the favored team's trash talk about its opponents is going to come back to bite them. Pardon the pun since they are known for waving their arms in a fashion that is supposed to resemble a chomp. I think it looks more like a variation on every two year olds favorite game, pattie cake, but that's just me.

This week's pick is the host Tennessee (+7.5) over Florida. Tennessee did lose to UCLA and, well, that is pathetic but I sense the players want to save their coach's job. This theory nearly worked for my Washington pick until the Pac-10 got in the way and I suspect the SEC officials will be dotting their I's and crossing their T's so let's take a chance on this one.


Last Week: The few people that do read this blog made fun of my pick and they have every right to. A weaker man would quit doing these picks after UCLA's performance but I am going to stick it out. I do stand by my assertion even more though. The Bruins will be back in the thick of playing for second place in the Pac-10 before too long so take advantage now.

Season to Date: 1-2

2008 Upset Special Week #3

Things are really busy around our place. Trying to get things in order for a little get together to watch the Ducks in HD. As a result, the upset special breakdown is very simple. UCLA over BYU. Earlier in the week UCLA was about a 9-point underdog and I feel good about this one. Lost in all of the referee hubbub is that BYU stinks. UCLA on the other hand, Pac-10 teams better beat this year and next because they are going to be scary good very soon. Or so I predict.

2008 Upset Special Week #2

After scouring the betting lines for this weekend's games there were not many candidates. A lot of "no chance at an upset" type games. Then I got near the bottom of the list and one game stood out: BYU @ Washington. Washington is a 9-point underdog so they're the pick. This boils down to one person and he is Jake Locker. I think he is a phenomenal athlete and hope he can turn into a phenomenal quarterback. The guy played some wooden bat college summer baseball and according to Baseball America was the top prospect in that league. I don't think he has even played baseball in a couple of years. The rationale behind this pick is pretty simple and is as follows:

• The old-timers back from their Mormon missions have no chance of containing Locker.
• Washington has to win this game to save Willingham's job because they are not beating Oklahoma next week.
• I do not think Washington will play as poorly this week as last.

Last week: Stanford did beat Oregon State in a great ball game. I've already rehashed this brilliant pick so won't do it again.

Season to Date: 1-0

2008 Upset Special Week #1

By golly, this is the year I am going to pick a game every single week of the season. In the past my weekly schedule during the football season was a nightmare. It seemed like I could never get in a groove and find the right time to pick a game. This year is going to be different but my first pick is a staple of my upset picking history.

The Stanford Cardinal will defeat the Oregon State Beavers. If there is one thing that is constant in college football it is that the Beavers season will go something like this. Lose a couple of games early in the season against really inferior competition, Mike Riley starts taking heat and rightfully so, win the games they are supposed to and pull out an upset or two in Pac-10 play, qualify for a ninth-tier bowl game, win bowl game against a I-AA team and sing the praises of Mike Riley for the entire offseason. Now you know why I feel so good about this pick. To be honest I do not even know what the betting line is or if Oregon State is the favorite but I am making that assumption. (Do recall that I will generally pick games with betting lines of six or more.)

I must say that the Ducks vs. Huskies game has me nervous. Usually that is a good sign for the Ducks though. There is something about Jake Locker that is likely keeping Nick Aliotti up all night this week. And something else tells me Ty Willingham is quite thankful that he has to beat Justin Roper and not Nate Costa. One of these days things will go right for Willingham but Saturday is not one of those days.

Upset Special: Week 10

This week's pick is a dangerous one. I see this game as either being very close or a major blowout in favor of the wrong team. The big pick for this week is Alabama (+7) over LSU. Both teams are coming off bye weeks so I'm not sure who that favors if it favors anyone. I suppose if Glenn Dorsey plays then it favors LSU initially since he is dominant and was injured in LSU's last game. The game is being played in Tuscaloosa, Alabama so that has to favor Alabama. The deciding factor in this game is that I befriended an Alabama booster on our cruise this summer and I told him I would root for the Crimson Tide when given the chance. He agreed he would do the same for the Ducks so let's hope he returns the favor. In the end, if you pay a coach $4M per year to coach your team the least he could do is beat his former team in his new home stadium. Nick Saban (pictured above) receives a lot of publicity and if Alabama wins the media lovefest for Saban will only get worse. However, it will all be worth it if Oregon is able to claw out a tough victory and hopefully move up the rankings.

Season to Date: Last week was an unmitigated disaster with Stanford showing why they are known for academics and not athletics. At least in sports that matter to the average college fan. The step-brother was able to hold serve on his home field so my record has dipped below .500 yet again (4-5). I'm starting to get sick of being around .500 but would certainly love to be at that point at the end of the day today.

(Photo from Robert Sutton/AP Photo.)

Upset Special: Week 9

There have been a number of huge upsets this year so I'm going to go away from picking a game with a 6-7 point line and look for a large upset. It's taken me 9 weeks to pick an upset involving the step-sister to the north but this is the week. Stanford (+12.5 vs. Oregon State) has shown an ability to pull off a major upset already. This certainly would not be on the same level but an upset nonetheless. Oregon State is due for a flat performance, they haven't had one for a few weeks and always do. Additionally, I can't advocate for a team that uses ineligible players like the Beavers have. This cheating is not looked favorably upon by the football gods so look for the Cardinal to have another road upset.

Season to Date: Miami came up huge last week and pushed the season record back to .500 (4-4). I did not see a single play/highlight of that game. Kind of like the rest of the country in relation to huge Pac-10 games but that's for another day. I'm looking forward to the rival up north to push my record above .500.

Upset Special: Week 8

For the longest time this week's Upset Special game was one of the most highly anticipated games of the year. Not so much this year. In fact, this rivalry game has been played on the Monday of Labor Day weekend the last few years, meaning it was the first game of the year for both teams. The games have been defensive slugfests lately so a game scheduled later in the year is thought to have given the offenses time to iron out the wrinkles. I doubt that is really going to happen this weekend but you never know. This week the Miami Hurricanes (+6) visit the Florida State Seminoles. There will likely be a ton of fast, future NFL players on the field. Oddly enough, I enjoy watching these two teams play because the defenses are usually very impressive. I'm an offensive guy but something about really fast players hitting hard and limiting the game to a battle of punters interests me. If history teaches us anything watch for a late field goal being missed wide right/left by the Seminoles. Maybe it's because I never see such a thing in the Pac-10.

Season to Date: Last week was another disaster so things have slipped below .500 for the first time (3-4). I thought Wisconsin would at least pretend they didn't like plummeting out of the Top 10 but I was gravely mistaken. I'm feeling good about getting back to .500 though this week.

(Photo of Miami head coach Randy Shannon from JC Ridley/WireImage.com.)

Upset Special: Week 7

I'd like to provide more analysis for these upsets but time does not allow. It seems I go to the two worst BCS conferences for my upset picks a lot and this week is no different. This week's pick comes from the Big Ten. This is by far the worst conference to watch in all of the land. I find the style of play to be offensive. There is a reason why the conference does so poorly in out of conference games. It's also a reason why Illinois is going to be a tough team from here on out. In fact the people in the Midwest probably think Illinois is a revolutionary team with so much team speed. Revolutionary for the Midwest but not for the rest of the country. A team with a lot of speed and an exciting offense in the Midwest is more rare than a Colorado Rockies loss. Don't worry I will have much more to say about the Big Ten when Ohio State is yet again undefeated at the end of the season after playing nobody that would be bowl eligible in any other conference.

Now back to the Upset Special for this week. This week I have the poster child for boring, slow Big Ten football pulling off the upset. Wisconsin (+6.5) is in Happy Valley to play Penn State. You could not pay me enough to watch this game. I predict the first team to 3 will win this game, which means I have Wisconsin getting a field goal sometime late in the 3rd quarter.

Season to Date: Things have been very much up and down for the Upset Special. I am 3-3 on the year. Last week's pick of Purdon't over Ohio State was so bad I should never pick again but I'm giving it a go anyway.

Upset Special: Week 6

I want to make sure I get this in before the kickoff in about 5 minutes. As a result, there will be limited analysis to accompany the pick. I have Purdue (or PurDon't if you are an Illini fan) defeating Ohio State at home. Purdue is a 7-point underdog but are playing at home. For me Ohio State is the college football version of the Yankees or Patriots, can't stand them. The silly tuba player that 'dots the I' doesn't impress me and the wishbone offense in the year 2007 does little to make me think they are any good. For that reason, I am going with the Boilermakers to win. I really don't know much about them but it's time Ohio State lost so why not tonight.

(Photo from Andy Lyons/Getty Images.)

Upset Special: Week #5

Only someone that does not get paid to write a blog can identify his upset special two days after the game has happened. With things being busy I am to announcing my upset special for the week that just completed at this time. Only the people I told at work before the game started will believe my selection but it is South Florida (+7) over West Virginia. If you follow my thoughts on college football this shouldn’t be a surprise and I have no reason to lie. If I wanted to be obnoxious and pick a game after it happened I would have gone with the Colorado upset over Oklahoma so people would think I was a genius. Everyone knows I think the Big East is lame and I thought West Virginia was overrated since they played exactly no one before playing the now 6th ranked South Florida Bulls. People like to hype up Boise State but what South Florida is doing is more remarkable. This is only the school’s 11th season fielding a football team and they are now ranked 6th and play in a BCS Conference. That is simply amazing and further proves that the state of Florida has wicked amounts of talent.

Season Record: 3-2. South Florida’s performance overshadows my blunder of a pick the previous week with South Carolina over LSU. That did not pan out at all but South Florida makes me feel better.

(Photo from Chris O'Meara/AP Photo.)

Upset Special: Week 4

I am really taking a chance this week. Kind of like when I picked Tiger Woods to win the PGA Championship. I am sticking to the Southeast corner of the country and taking South Carolina (+ 18) to defeat LSU in Baton Rouge. This is certainly a crazy pick but I like Steve Spurrier. I don't have a list of his results at South Carolina but it seems to me his teams never get blown out. I realize not getting blown out doesn't constitute an Upset Special but the fact that Spurrier might be the best college coach is only part of my rationale. It's taken me at least 5 minutes to come up with more of an argument than Steve Spurrier is the better coach in the matchup and I can't. I suppose this is why the 2nd ranked home team is more than a 2 touchdown favorite. Well, that is all I can say about this pick. I like Steve Spurrier, Steve Spurrier is good.

Last Week: Kentucky came through and defeated a team from the incredibly overrated Big East. That brings my season record to 2-1. Interested to see how this week turns out.

(Photo from John Bazemore/AP Photo.)